junkies. thanks for spending your sunday with us. you can catch me here on sunday's. gps starts right now. this is gps. welcome to all you have in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria live from new york. we'll start today's show with that russian plane. what really brought it down over the sinai. was it a bomb? was it isis? if it was, just how much of a game changer is that. former cia director michael hayden will join me exclusively. what does it mean for

russia? is moscow the new great satan for jihadist. refugees are swarming the shores and borders of europe. is there a financial case to take them? a surprising answer from a child of refugees, martin wolf. and why despite america having its first black president, equality of the races is still a very, very, very long way off. we'll get to the latest on the russian plane in a moment. first here is my take. it's difficult to find anyone in the obama administration who really believes that putting around 50 special operations soldiers on the ground in syria will make much of a difference in the raging civil war there. yet the president has authorized this expansion of america's military intervention there for the same reasons that he has

approved incremental escalations for the last year and a half. he believes he has to do something. what he's doing will not work and in a few moments the united states will face the challenge again. back down or double down. so far the obama administration has responded each time with increased intervention. america's military involvement against isis began in june 2014 with the limited deployment of 275 soldiers to protect the u.s. embassy in baghdad. within two months that expanded to more than 1,000 military personnel to support the embattled. they provide a time line of this escalation. floats that what began august

8th, 2014 with 25 air strikes in first week and food and water air dropped to save threatened have morphed and expanded and more than 100 bundles of ammunition supplied to an unnamed faction of 5,000 syrian rebels. the strength of isis does not appear to be much diminished. the syrian struggle is complex. it's difficult to see how a modest american intervention would shift that landscape. the best book about the vietnam war remains the irony of vietnam. the authors explain that the kennedy and johnson administrations never believed

that their incremental interventions would succeed. they escalated because both administrations believed they had to do something. so, the united states went from having a few hundred advisors in south vietnam in 1960 to more than half a million troops there by 1968. vietnam analogy is crude and imperfect for many reasons but the logic is hauntingly familiar. you opt for incrementalism hoping to get lucky. i've supported obama's reluctance to get more deeply involved. i do not see how american intervention will resolve things militarily or improve the humanitarian situation there. if america were to succeed, if assad were to fall, damascus would explode in chaos. the syrian army would go underground and fight as an insurgency. would human rights really improve in that circumstance.

yet, it's becoming hard to describe u.s. policy there as one of restraint when it now involves over 3,500 forces actively engaged in iraq and syria. in tend, i believe that obama will keep the american intervention in syria small and limited. he will leave his successor with a terrible dilemma in the way the kennedy administration left one for lyndon jackson. the next american president will face the stark reality that america's involvement in syria will not have resolved matters, but the u.s. government will have made commitment, sent troop, spent billions and lost lives in that conflict. at that point can the american president back down or will he or she have to double down hoping to get lucky?

for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my post. let's get started. let's get straight away to the latest on that russian plane that fell apart over the sigh that peninsula just over a week ago. yesterday one official told cnn it was 99.9% certain that bomb had brought down the plane. i wanted to bring in michael hayden to talk about the ramifications. he's the former head of both the cia and the nsa. he's now principal at the chertoff group. pleasure to have you on. >> thanks. >> i'm going to assume this was a bomb. i want to know does it make a difference if this was a bomb that was in the luggage compartment or if it was a bomb that came on?

in other words, is there a difference in the danger, the nature of the attack if they could get it smuggled on a portion through the security measures? >> first of all, 99.9% is a really big number. i'm not even that sure that today is sunday. it's looking more and more likely this indeed was a bomb. if you act on that conclusion, the first thing you have to ask yourself, was this terrorist success based upon a new technological breakthrough or the product of incompetence or compromise at the airport? it would be incredibly troubling that this bombing was the product of a new technological breakthrough that made it more difficult or impossible for us to detect the explosive device. al qaeda has been working on these undetectable bombs for a long time. this was almost certainly isis,

but it does make the problem any less severe. i think, first of all, the question is was this product of incompetence or promise or new technology. then the secondary problem hand carried or stored luggage. >> from what we know the security procedures for plane leaving going into russia are quite different and less strict than planes entering the united states. would that have been enough because from what i've read about those undetectable bombs that al qaeda has been trying to develop, it is they would get through even the procedures that the u.s. government has in place. >> that's correct. you've got this technological race going on between ourselves and terrorists that our devices are adequate to need in terms of technology that they develop. you bring up a great point. my instinct here, my instinct is this is the product of

incompetence or compromise. if i'm jay jason, the secretary of homeland security i'm trying to turn over every possible rock to make sure the instinct is correct. >> what does this -- let's assume it's not some kind of technological game changer, what does this tell us about isis capabilities? egypt has been battling terrorists for years. we didn't know that isis has deep connections with them. they claim to have connections with the groups all over, but those claims are often very tenuous. does this suggest isis has developed links or is this a one off that may not tell us as much? >> that's a great question. again, my instinct right now is to the latter circumstance as opposed to the former. al qaeda was strategic,

thoughtful, and operated from the top down. that's not isis. they are tactical, opportunistic and works from the top up. isis central really didn't know much about this attack before it happened. isis leadership seems to want to inspire attacks from its affiliates or even lone wolves. if this were al qaeda, we would attach it to the senior leadership automatically. that may be the case here but i don't think it's an automatic assumption like it would be with the other terrorist organization. it raises the threat profile of isis but i don't know that it means globally they're game has reached a new level. >> there's been careful stud

disof suicide attacks and bombings. he claims if you look apt isis it's very clear they only attack foreign enemies. the french were attacked. the canadians in ottawa and now the russians. their real focus has been in the region. they only go out against outsider if they kind of try to stir the hornets nest. >> absolutely, correct. al qaeda made the strategic decision that the way to win was to go after the far enemy, us and our allies as a way to undermine the near enemies. isis has turned that on its

head. they want to make war on the near enemies. harm to us in the west is collateral damage from isis's fight against the near enemy. in this particular case it was a russian airliner. this was as much an assault against the regime in egypt as it was against the russians. >> michael hayden always a pleasure to talk to you. thank you, sir. >> thank you. next on gps, we'll stick with that russian plane, but i have a great panel to talk about the politics, the geopolitics of has russian entry's into the new syrian fight made it the great new satan for terrorists? machine technology empowers us to achieve more.

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digestive core.r so choose ultimate flora by renewlife. it has 30 billion probiotic cultures. feel lighter and more energized. ultimate flora. more power to your gut. . why do u.s. officials believe that a bomb took down metrojet 9268? one they say is communicators is messages from isis officials. if isis did plant a bomb on a russian plane, what would that mean for the cremlin? joining me now to discuss, ian. and you've studied the cremlin for a long time. how do you think they are

reacting to this? >> one of the interesting things is so far they have barely reacted at all. i'm guessing that's because they are deciding how to spin the story. what important is not so much who did it or why. what's really important is how they will sell it and explain it. for some of the reasons you just hinted at they may want to avoid the idea it's isis. they don't want their population to think they have been targeted for their involvement in syria. there was a little hint this morning and yesterday. there's been a couple of news stories hinting maybe it was mi6 and another story that maybe the cia is involved. they may try to spin this differently. that's the thing to watch. that will tell you how their thinking is beginning on this right now. >> russian media has been reporting some connection between the 50,000 ukraineis

fighting with isis. >> yes, there's been a them the last week. i imagine it's a bit farfetched to suggest ukraine bombed plane. they are trying to make that connection. they are trying to show they are being undermined by anti-russian forces and will continue to push that. >> ian, is this some kind of a game changer, this plane crash? >> no. i think the game changer was the russian decision to go in. ann's right that they're in no hurry right now to have the conclusion of an investigation resolve that isis was behind the bombing. it's not as if the russians are in friends of isis but that's not been their primary strategy. they're not going to be engaged in warfare to support the public good unless they are getting

something in return. they're intention is to sure up assad and use that leverage perhaps to stabilize syria more broadly and get something out of that from the europeans from the americans. that can't be done on isis's timetable. the russian have to delay here. >> doesn't this make putin's strategy in syria look a lot let brilliant, a lot more dangerous than was previously portrayed? >> i always thought it was an incredibly risky and dangerous strategy because it's game of perceptions. physically his souldiers left ukraine and went to world attention and refocus his people away from ukraine and onto syria. that works fine so long as he wins in syria or is seen to be winning. if it backfires then that's too disasterous situations he's created. number one in ukraine where

there's an unresolved conflict. he's really created a double disaster. >> what does this tell yous abo isis? what does it tell us about the egyptians but what does it say about isis having contacts in the sinai? >> well, we keep talking about isis as somehow isis combatants basically have parachuted into egypt from nowhere from the sky. this is a local insurgency with deep roots. it's a decade long. the term is local. what's changed is the marriage between a local insurgency and

isis. this humble local insurgency has now tenacity, capacity organizational depth, bombing capacity and it has waged and carried out massive bombings against egyptian security forces, against foreign targets. it's waging economic warfare against the egyptian government and that's why the egyptian government has been reluctant to come forward and say we think it was a device on the plane. the implications for egypt, as you all know for the tourist industry would be shattering. to put it bluntly what you have now or the egyptian affiliate it is powerful. it is one of the most potent isis afifiliates outside of ira

and syria. this franchise by the egyptian government and the egyptian government heavy handed tactics in the last two years have driven many into the arms of isis. >> very quickly, will this mean that they'll double down on what's already a very, very tough strategy on terrorism. he really has locked up thousands and thousands of people. >> what you have now in egypt really is more than one insurgency. the egyptian government is waging all out war. also you have clam down. big clamp down against the muslim brotherhood. the danger is not just with sinai, the danger is how many

young egyptians would migrate to isis. isis has already scored a massive propaganda coup. it's defying the western and russian armada. this narrative resonate with young sunni muslims not just in middle east but the world at large. >> 20 seconds. ian, russia has its own problems with muslims, what do you think this does there? >> the russian and the egyptian government both only get support from taking the hardest possible line domestically and that's true pretty much across the political spectrum. in the case of egypt, cc wants show it needs to be completely destr destroyed. that will be supported for putin and given the history inside the

borders and outside. you'll get the same issues. you're not going to have sort of a national dialogue in these countries with significant opposition saying we're going the wrong things. >> that means more crackdowns and more potentially more terrorism. thank you all. terrific panel. coming up, i will take you to a place where the employment rate is 35%. the kicker, it's not in southern europe. it's right here in the united states. find out where, next.

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i want to take you to one of the worst reforming economies in the developing world. the employment rate is only 35%. 45% of the population lives in poverty. over 5% of the population has fled. we're not talking about greece.

this is a part of the united states. it's tropical territory puerto rico. it's the next battleground for the debate over austerity and debt relief. back in june the islands governor announced it could $72 billion worth of debt. they got into that bind thanks to its crushing ten-year recession and some really terrible fiscal policies enacted by the local government. the obama administration has proposed a plan and a treasury official warned the senate that puerto rico could easily become a humanitarian crisis without federal action. senate republicans criticized the lack of cost estimates for the plan and worry about puerto rico's fuzzy statistics. some of puerto rico's debt will likely be forgiven. in other words, its lenders will have to suffer losses.

the administration's plan gives them the same right as cities in the main land have the right to declare bankruptcy. that's exactly what detroit recently did. puerto rico is currently not allowed to do it. now the debate over congressional approval of the plan has begun and the battle pits them against the bankers. the bankers have a lot more pull with congress. if puerto rico is allowed to file for bankruptcy protection, a court of law will determine how much of its debt it has to pay back. as it currently stands the territory needs to negotiate directly with its creditors. those creditors know they will be forced to take a haircut, as they say, if they go to court. former treasury secretary has said it's absurd to suggest that puerto rico's debts can be completely paid off by further tax increases and spending cuts.

investors will take a hit in any bankruptcy proceeding. that is the price that they must pay at this point for failed bet. as the new york times has pointed out a systematic restructuring of the islands debt and bankruptcy court is surely preferable to a chaotic legal fight if puerto rico defaults on its debt. still, it appears that investors who have money and megaphones are fighting the administration's proposal tooth and nail in congress and succeeding. if that reality holds true, larry summers says, lit be a profoundly troubling reflection on the power of special interests in washington. it would also be a disaster for the 3.5 million puerta ricans. it's not a new idea.

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my next guest is one of america's hottest new intellectual voices. he writes for the atlantic and been awarded a mcarthur genius prize. he's criticized those who said and say that african-americans need to fix a culture of family break down and social dysfunction. he's criticized president obama for giving advice to young black graduates of morehouse college not to make bad choices or excuses. he'll explain why. he's the author of an impassioned new book called between the world and me. listen in. >> pleasure to have you on.

>> thanks for having me. >> the united states spends $1 trillion on poverty programs. most of which disproportionately benefit blacks. is that not enough? >> that's not reparations. red line didn't disproportion e disproportionately hurt black people. it's not the same thing. we don't have a policy at all. we do not have a policy in this country that directly targets the victims of white supreme policies we don't have that. this was victims of the white supremacy. it was a special policy directed

to the african-american community. >> you criticize president obama for when he went to morehouse college and was giving the kind of talk that people have about behavior of dropping out of school, taking drugs, breaking up marriages produces many of the pathologies you see in black inner city life. he argues that the evidence is overwhelming that those blacks who are able to maintain, shall we call them values and habits, do very well and actually have income levels very similar to whites and achievements levels similar and this is the way out of the poverty trap, the crime

trap, the mass incarceration trap. why would you be opposed from it? >> i'm obviously not opposed to getting an education or staying out of jail. i don't think black people in particular are in need of extra urging for that. this notion that african-american who is played by the rules somehow end up in a a space of equality with white family who is do the same. i just have to challenge that. we have great recent studies. patrick sharky at nyu showed that african-american families that make $100,000 a year, that's doing pretty well in america, tend to live in the same neighborhoods as white families that make $30,000. i saw this in my own life. i had two parents, they stayed together for the entirety of my

childhood, i had books all around me. every day when i walked out i thought about this fear for my body. my parents being married, my parents playing by the rules as they did, could not save me from that. >> you don't think that -- isn't one important path out to not succumb to drugs and not break up families. >> sure. >> it seemed to me that's what obama was saying. he was celebrating black achievement. he was saying, but, you have to not fall into these traps. >> he was addressing a graduating class. i'm pretty sure they mastererd that portion of it. that's how they graduated from morehouse. how do we get to a position of equality? not just arrived at college and

not freshman here, actually graduated from morehouse college and moving on with their lives, how do you create a situation, a world in which those folk who is have held up their end of the deal and get out of neighborhood, get to college, get the degree can be equivalent to people doing the same. i don't think the way to do thad is to tell them you need to play by the rules even more. as the president of the united states, i definitely don't think that. i don't think that's the way. i think they have mastered that part. that's why they are graduating. that explains why they are graduating. it just isn't enough. >> is your own extraordinary success a reputation of your thesis? >> not at all. >> you did well. >> thank you very much. it tells me that we live in an

era that's different than 50 years ago. individuals through individual african-americans through a combination of talent, hard work and great luck can achieve and can do really, really well. individuals in a way that wasn't true under the era of jim crow. i don't think you could have an african-american president at that point in time. that really isn't the argument. the argument is on a mass of level, how do we bring equality. how do we make sure that's true for a mass number of black people, the way it's true for a mass number of white people. i'm one writer. we have one african-american president. i don't know when we will have another. how do we make it true that black children can achieve the same success? not a few individual cases as

some case of extraordinary luck and work who make it through. how do we equalize it for everybody? >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you so much. up next, putting up fences. that's what many european nations have done in response to the flood of refugees coming from syria. it's a reprehenceable action but are those nations justified in doing it economically? this is claira.

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. you've seen the heart trending pictures of sad refugee kid, the destitute people looking for the basics of life,

safety, shelter, food water. now with winter coming the situation will worsen. there's a humanitarian reason for european nations to take in these refugees. that's impossible to deny. is there an economic rationale. on thursday eu officials said refugees would have a small favorable effect on growth in the region. i wanted to put it to martin wolf. he's the chief for the times. pleasure to have you on. we talk about economics. first i want to talk to you about something you wrote that struck me in the wake of all this talk about refugees and immigrants and migrants, you pointed out that that's your family background. >> correct. >> my parents were both refugees

from hitler's europe. my father came from austria. my mother came from the netherlands by the skin of her teeth three days before the nazis occupied her home time. they arrived in england in 1937 and 1940. >> england was this incredible place that received jews fleeing europe and created a great life for you. you also saw a refugee community that contributed to britain. >> there's no question about that. it wasn't a huge community. they didn't let all that many in but there were a certain number. friends and there's a very large jewish community in england from the programs in russia by be russians much earlier. it was a very significant inflow of european jews and i think

they made some remarkable achievements some of them are very, very famous. >> yet, you are skeptical of the claim that migration is an chick benefit to britain. >> there's no question immigration benefits migrants. absolutely none, and probably the world as a whole. if you're trying to tell them having a large inflow will necessarily benefit them, i think the evidence is very much against saying that's a clear answer. it depends on who the immigrants are, skills they have, how successful they are, economically what sort of contributions they make, how long they stay. it really does depend on the nature of immigration. you have to be realistic if you have a very large immigrant flow in a small and very densely populated country like the uk, it requires very substantial to accommodate. you have to build

infrastructure, hospitals, roads, schools. you have to build more houses. otherwise the congestion costs become significant. we're not very good at doing any of those things. >> what do you make of the arts made in the united states where there are economists and scholars who say when you look at the effect of migration from mexico on low income americans, it's not clear it's beneficial. it probably hurts them. these are the same people who compete for the same low wage. you have to build this capacity. are they right? is donald trump right? >> some of the propositions he's putting forward seem to be sort of basically mad. if you have a large number of people in the country you can't throw them out. economists are debating these questions. they are really big arguments

among economists. the sense git of the american is the immigration flow is different. we're talking about unskilled people. some argue there are significant negative effects on people who compete at the lower end of the wage scale. i think there is evidence for that. there are also others who argue that actually if you look at it very, very carefully they are complementary to a lot of the other workers. it can be positive or negative depending on your welfare state. how whether they're employed and in many countries immigrants tend not to be very successful. if you bring in highly skilled doctors the effects will be totally different. there is a simple proposition

that you can drive from the evidence. it depends. >> pleasure to have you on. >> pleasure. next, the land of the free and the home of the brave. that's america, right. one new study set out to find out if the united states really is the freest country in the world. is it? we'll tell you when we come back. gs to the fast. and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise.

where you live on this planet determines a lot of things. are you healthy, free, educated, safe? where do you have the best chance to be all of those things? a new report from a london based

think tank, proposes an answer. their 2015 prosperity index released this week calculates a country's prosperity using more than just wealth. they examined a broad set of objective and subjective variables that contribute to well being. this brings me to my question of the week. which country was the most free from the 2015 prosperity index? stay tuned. we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book is john meacham's biography. one one of the greatest story tellers and tells the tale of this american hero and the political dynasty that he's part of. i can't wait the finish.

the correct answer is b. according to the prosperity endee index, canada has stolen the title land of the free from the united states. 94% of canadians are satisfied with their freedom of choice compared with only 87% of americans. the u.s. ranked 15 in the personal freedoms category. thanks to you for being part of my program this week. see you next week. good morning. it's time for reliable sources. our weekly look at the story behind the story of now news and pop culture get made. ahead this hour, verbal combat between reporters and republican candidates with ben carson firing become as the press looks into his past. the new movie spotlight it's one of the best movies made about journalism. are the days when a local page could uncover a huge scandal nost another hollywood memory